This is a longish post, here is the Executive Summary.
A scientific paper published on 24 June warns that about 4 deaths per 100,000 vaccinations should be expected based on analysis of Dutch vaccine side effects reports and confirmed vaccine related deaths. When compared with the age-dependent Death from Covid risks by age for healthy White Irish male adults estimated using the University of Oxford QCovid Risk assessment calculator, the age at which the Vaccination Risk equals the Death from Covid risk was determined to be 46 to 47. Under the age of 47, the Vaccination Risk appears to be greater than the risk of Death from Covid.
It is estimated that there are 2,840,000 healthy adults and children under the age of 47 in Ireland. At 4 deaths per 100,000 vaccinations, full vaccination could result in up to 114 deaths. This far exceeds the 54 reported deaths of persons under 45, most of whom were likely to have had underlying conditions. 87% of Covid deaths are reported to have had underlying conditions. Applying this percentage to the 54 reported deaths under 45, it is estimated there were only 6 deaths of healthy young adults or children from Covid.
The estimated toll from vaccinations exceeds this by a factor of 19, i.e., for every healthy young adult and child’s life saved from Covid by vaccination, there could be up to 19 deaths from vaccination.
Prudence demands vaccinations of this group be suspended immediately.
Given this notice of potential risk, there is no scientific, medical, ethical or moral justification for proceeding with vaccinations for this group pending verification of the vaccination risks.
Introduction
This paper published on 24 June, just a few days ago, The Safety of COVID-19 Vaccinations—We Should Rethink the Policy by Harald Walach, Rainer J. Klement, Wouter Aukemahe
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/693/htm
presents the following conclusion:
our estimates show that we have to accept four fatal and 16 serious side effects per 100,000 vaccinations in order to save the lives of 2–11 individuals per 100,000 vaccinations, placing risks and benefits on the same order of magnitude.
The comparison above is based on population averages. However, the risk of dying from Covid is not evenly spread, it is low for young healthy people, but much higher for older ill people, so this population average does not help to assess an individual’s personal risk/benefit balance between vaccination or Covid.
The University of Oxford provides a tool, the QCovid Risk assessment, https://qcovid.org/Calculation, which can be used to calculate “the absolute risk of catching and dying COVID-19 over a 90-day period based on data from the first peak of the pandemic.”
This calculator was used to calculate the risk for a healthy White Irish male, 1.79m tall and weighing 96 kg for each age from 20 to 85. This person has a BMI just under 30 (29.96), so is at the margin of overweight, but not obese. BMI is a factor in the risk calculation, higher BMI is higher risk. This person with BMI marginally within the limit approximates to the highest limit of risk of Covid for a healthy male. A female’s risk of death from Covid is slightly higher than a male’s of the same BMI up to about age 30. Over 30, a male’s risk is higher.
The calculated risks by age are:
The range of risk is so large that this normal scale makes it difficult to distinguish the higher levels or risk, therefore here is the same chart with a logarithmic scale.
Analysis:
Having calculated and charted the QCovid risks by age, the Vaccination Risk reported in the paper can be overlaid and the relative risks of death from Covid or vaccination side effects can be visually compared:
The paper warns that four (4) deaths may be expected per 100,000 vaccinations. This is equivalent to 1 in 25,000, and this is plotted as the red line in the chart.
The Vaccination Risk line crosses the Covid Risk line between the ages of 46 and 47. Below this line, the Vaccination Risk is higher than the Covid Risk, and the gap increases as age reduces. At age 36, the Vaccination Risk at 1 in 25,000 is four times greater than the Covid Risk. The adverse risk ratio increases rapidly growing to 40 at age 20. This region has been named the Danger Zone.
Above the Vaccination Risk line, the risk ratio is in favour of vaccination and rises from 1 at age 47 to 10 at age 66. This region is named the Cautionary Zone. In this zone, particularly at the younger ages where the risk ratio is small, many could reasonably decide that the small difference in risk in favour of vaccination would be insufficient to risk vaccination. At the upper end of this region, the balance of risk in favour of vaccinations become more pronounced and would strongly tilt decisions towards vaccination.
Above age 66, the risk ratio exceeds 10, people can more confidently take the vaccination.
According to the 2016 census there were 2,989,295 persons under 45 and 326,110 aged 45 to 49 in Ireland. This implied about 3,150,000 under 47. The population has increased about 5% since, the total now would be about 3,300,000. Of these, and extrapolating from the December 12, 2020 Underlying Conditions Report, https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/epidemiologyofcovid-19inirelandweeklyreports/COVID-19%20Weekly%20Report_%20Week%209_%20Slideset_HPSC_v1.0%20-Website.pdf
approximately 14% have underlying conditions. Subtracting these, there are approximately 2,840,000 healthy adults and children under age 47. If the papers conclusions are verified, at 4 deaths per 100,000 vaccinations, there could be up to 114 deaths from vaccinations amongst them. This far exceeds the 54 deaths reported of persons under 45, most of whom were likely to have had underlying conditions. 87.9% of Covid deaths are reported to have had underlying conditions. https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/epidemiologyofcovid-19inirelandweeklyreports/COVID-19%20Weekly%20Report_Slidset_HPSC_%20Week_18_WEB_20210511.pdf
Applying this percentage to the reported deaths under 45, it is estimated there were only 6 deaths of healthy young adults or children from Covid.
The estimated toll from vaccinations exceeds this by a factor of 19, i.e., for every healthy young adult and child’s life saved from Covid by vaccination, there could be up to 19 deaths from vaccination.
Prudence demands vaccinations of this group be suspended immediately.
Given this notice of potential risk, there is no scientific, medical, ethical or moral justification for proceeding with vaccinations for this group pending verification of the vaccination risks.
Even in this post-Christian era, human sacrifice to appease the gods and banish disease is a thing of the past, isn’t it?
Selected extracts from the paper for reader convenience:
5. Conclusions
The present assessment raises the question whether it would be necessary to rethink policies and use COVID-19 vaccines more sparingly and with some discretion only in those that are willing to accept the risk because they feel more at risk from the true infection than the mock infection. Perhaps it might be necessary to dampen the enthusiasm by sober facts? In our view, the EMA and national authorities should instigate a safety review into the safety database of COVID-19 vaccines and governments should carefully consider their policies in light of these data. Ideally, independent scientists should carry out thorough case reviews of the very severe cases, so that there can be evidence-based recommendations on who is likely to benefit from a SARS-CoV2 vaccination and who is in danger of suffering from side effects. Currently, our estimates show that we have to accept four fatal and 16 serious side effects per 100,000 vaccinations in order to save the lives of 2–11 individuals per 100,000 vaccinations, placing risks and benefits on the same order of magnitude.
In the course of the SARS-CoV2 pandemic, new regulatory frameworks were put in place that allowed for the expedited review of data and admission of new vaccines without safety data [1]. Many of the new vaccines use completely new technologies that have never been used in humans before. The rationale for this action was that the pandemic was such a ubiquitous and dangerous threat that it warrants exceptional measures.
The NNTV is the reciprocal of the absolute risk difference between risk in the treated group and in the control group, expressed as decimals. To give an artificial example: An absolute risk difference between a risk of 0.8 in the control group and a risk of 0.3 in the treated group would result in an absolute risk difference of 0.5; thus, the number needed to treat or the NNTV would be 1/0.5 = 2. This is the clinical effectiveness of the vaccine.
The COVID-19 vaccines are immunologically effective and can—according to the publications—prevent infections, morbidity, and mortality associated with SARS-CoV2; however, they incur costs. Apart from the economic costs, there are comparatively high rates of side effects and fatalities. The current figure is around four fatalities per 100,000 vaccinations, as documented by the most thorough European documentation system, the Dutch side effects register (lareb.nl). This tallies well with a recently conducted analysis of the U.S. vaccine adverse reactions reporting system, which found 3.4 fatalities per 100,000 vaccinations, mostly with the Comirnaty (Pfizer) and Moderna vaccines
However, one should consider the simple legal fact that a death associated with a vaccination is different in kind and legal status from a death suffered as a consequence of an incidental infection.
the Dutch data, especially the fatal cases, were certified by medical specialists (https://www.lareb.nl/media/eacjg2eq/beleidsplan-2015-2019.pdf (accessed on 29 May 2021)), page 13: “All reports received are checked for completeness and possible ambiguities. If necessary, additional information is requested from the reporting party and/or the treating doctor The report is entered into the database with all the necessary information. Side effects are coded according to the applicable (international) standards. Subsequently an individual assessment of the report is made.
Another point to consider is that initially, mainly older persons and those at risk were entered into the national vaccination programs. It is to be hoped that the tally of fatalities will become lower as a consequence of the vaccinations, as the age of those vaccinated decreases.
However, we do think that, given the data, we should not wait to see whether more fatalities accrue, but instead use the data available to study who might be at risk of suffering side effects and pursue a diligent route
Finally, we note that from experience with reporting side effects from other drugs, only a small fraction of side effects is reported to adverse events databases [27,28]. The median underreporting can be as high as 95% [29].
Given this fact and the high number of serious side effects already reported, the current political trend to vaccinate children who are at very low risk of suffering from COVID-19 in the first place must be reconsidered.
LTExpat, IMO, it's really important that you get this out there ... so please repost on IT etc. as appropriate.
ReplyDeleteThis is simply scandalous!
Very well done on the report. If right, and I've no reason to assume it's not, and it gets out, there may be hell to pay.
As you say, hopefully we don't sacrifice our kids to the Gods anymore, aka the ancient Carthaginians' and their child sacrifices to Baal in times of woe!
Thank you.
ReplyDeleteEverything depends on the paper I referenced.
All I did was a little arithmetic and make up a couple of charts.
The key data is the 351 Dutch deaths from vaccination. The authors of the report say that these have been verified to be vaccine caused. If this is correct, everything else in my analysis follows as night follows day.
I intend to to try to get it out there.
You can help.
Send out the link on WhatsApp, Signal, whatever.
email it to the powers-that-be.
You do not need their individual e-mails. Just send to to their organisartions public contact email, and mark it for their attention.
I can't and preserve anonymity