The chart below showing the decline in transmissibility (secondary attack rates) of the Alpha and Delta Variants is based on data taken from the series of Variant of Concern Technical Briefings issued by UK Public Health England from Dec 2020 to no. 17 on 25 June 2021.
These Briefing may be accessed here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Briefing 17 provides up to date CFR's for each variant. It may be accessed here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/996740/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf
The Secondary Attack Rate as reported in each of the briefings for each variant was recorded and the data charted. Three Briefings did not include a report of Secondary Attack Rates. In these instances, for charting purposes, the values were interpolated from the prior and succeeding values. Interpolated values are identified in bold italic.
The CFR data was also added to the chart
Reviewing the data and the chart:
- Both variants' transmissibility decline over time.
- The Delta variant was never as transmissible as the Alpha variant at its maximum last December.
- The Alpha variant has declined from 15.1% in December to 7.9% now. This is an average decline of 1.2% per month.
- The Delta variant was between 12% and 13.5% in May. It is now 10.7%, a decline of at least 2% in a month.
- Delta's transmissibility today is approximately the same as Alpha's transmissibility in early/mid-April.
- Delta's CFR is 0.3%, one sixth of Alpha's 1.9%
Bottom Line:
The Dread Deadly Untreatable Everyone Must Be Crap In Your Pants Scared of Delta Variant is no such thing.
Objective review of the data reveals the doomnfearmongering over the Delta variant is unfounded.
Why can't these people follow the Science, as they tell us to?
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