Pre-2020 Pandemic Planning and Pandemic Mitigation and Control science and a Compilation of Papers Evaluating the Effectiveness of Mandatory Lockdown Measures
Update 27 June 2021: Added four papers, now 45 total. 42:3 against mandatory restrictions.
Here are lists of documents and papers covering Pre-Pandemic Planning by major national health authorities, some pre-2020 papers on response to and control of epidemics and a compilation of papers I have come across evaluating the effective of mandatory lockdown measures:
Pre-2020 Pandemic Planning
1 Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza
World Health Organization
https://www.who.int/influenza/publications/public_health_measures/publication/en/
2 ECDC TECHNICAL REPORT Guide to public health measures to reduce the impact of influenza pandemics in Europe: ‘The ECDC Menu’
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
3 Pandemic Influenza Preparedness for Ireland:
Advice of the Pandemic Influenza Expert Group
4 UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011
UK Department of Health
5 Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance:Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States
US CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/community_mitigation-sm.pdf
Pre-2020 Science
1 Public Health and Medical Responses to the 1957-58 Influenza Pandemic
D. A. Henderson, Brooke Courtney, Thomas V. Inglesby, Eric Toner, and Jennifer B. Nuzzo
2 Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza
Robert J. Glass*Comments to Author , Laura M. Glass†, Walter E. Beyeler*, and H. Jason Min* Author affiliations: *Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA; †Albuquerque Public High School, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/11/06-0255_article
3 Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic InfluenzaTHOMAS V. INGLESBY, JENNIFER B. NUZZO, TARA O’TOOLE, and D. A. HENDERSON
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf
4 Health is more than influenza
World Health Organization
https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/7/11-089086/en/
5 "Too Little of a Good Thing
A Paradox of Moderate Infection Control"
Cohen, Teda; Lipsitch, Marc
https://journals.lww.com/epidem/Fulltext/2008/07000/Too_Little_of_a_Good_Thing__A_Paradox_of_Moderate.14.aspx
Evaluations of Covid mandatory measures.
1 Covid-19 Mortality: A Matter of Vulnerability Among Nations Facing Limited Margins of Adaptation
Quentin De Larochelambert, Andy Marc, Juliana Antero, Eric Le Bourg and Jean-François Toussaint
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339/full
2 Assessing mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closure effects on the spread of COVID‐19
Eran Bendavid, Christopher Oh, Jay Bhattacharya, John P. A. Ioannidis
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484
3 Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study
Savaris,Pumi, Dalzochio, Kunst
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84092-1
4 COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink
Ari Joffe
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.625778/full
5 School closures and SARS-CoV-2. Evidence from Sweden’s partial school closure
Jonas Vlachos, Edvin Hertegård,e Helena Svaleryd
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.13.20211359v3
6 Did Lockdown Work? An Economist’s Cross-Country Comparison
Christian Bjornskov
https://academic.oup.com/cesifo/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cesifo/ifab003/6199605
7 A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes
Rabail Chaudhry, George Dranitsaris, Talha Mubashir, Justyna Bartoszko, Sheila Riazi
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
8 Was R < 1 before the English lockdowns? On modelling mechanistic detail, causality and inference about Covid-19
S. N. Wood, E. C. Wit
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.03.21251112v2.full
9 Covid Lockdown Cost/Benefits:A Critical Assessment of the Literature
Douglas W. Allen
http://www.sfu.ca/~allen/LockdownReport.pdf?
10 SARS-CoV-2 Transmission among Marine Recruits during Quarantine
Andrew G. Letizia, M.D., Irene Ramos, Ph.D., Ajay Obla, Ph.D., Carl Goforth, Ph.D., Dawn L. Weir, Ph.D., Yongchao Ge, Ph.D., Marcas M. Bamman, Ph.D., Jayeeta Dutta, M.B.A., Ethan Ellis, B.S., Luis Estrella, Ph.D., Mary-Catherine George, Ph.D., Ana S. Gonzalez-Reiche, Ph.D., William D. Graham, Ph.D., Adriana van de Guchte, M.S., Ramiro Gutierrez, M.D., Franca Jones, Ph.D., Aspasia Kalomoiri, Ph.D., Rhonda Lizewski, M.D., Stephen Lizewski, Ph.D., Jan Marayag, B.A., Nada Marjanovic, M.S., Eugene V. Millar, Ph.D., Venugopalan D. Nair, Ph.D., German Nudelman, Ph.D., Edgar Nunez, A.S., Brian L. Pike, Ph.D., Chad Porter, Ph.D., James Regeimbal, Ph.D., Stas Rirak, M.S., Ernesto Santa Ana, A.S., Rachel S.G. Sealfon, Ph.D., Robert Sebra, Ph.D., Mark P. Simons, Ph.D., Alessandra Soares-Schanoski, Ph.D., Victor Sugiharto, Ph.D., Michael Termini, M.D., Sindhu Vangeti, Ph.D., Carlos Williams, M.D., Olga G. Troyanskaya, Ph.D., Harm van Bakel, Ph.D., and Stuart C. Sealfon, M.D.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717
11 The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden
Benjamin Born , Alexander M. Dietrich , Gernot J. Müller
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249732
12 COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness
Gil Loewenthal, Shiran Abadi, Oren Avram, Keren Halabi, Noa Ecker, Natan Nagar, Itay Mayrose, Tal Pupko
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128520v1.full
13 Lockdown Effects on Sars-CoV-2 Transmission – The evidence from Northern Jutland
Kasper Planeta Kepp, e Christian Bjørnskov
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248936v1.full
14 Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic
Thomas Meunier
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1
15 Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19
Jan M. Brauner, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, David Johnston, John Salvatier, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Anna B. Stephenson, Gavin Leech, George Altman, Vladimir Mikulik, Alexander John Norman, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, Tamay Besiroglu, Hong Ge, Meghan A. Hartwick, Yee Whye Teh, Leonid Chindelevitch, Yarin Gal, Jan Kulveit
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6531/eabd9338/tab-pdf
16 Was Germany’s Corona Lockdown Necessary?
Christof Kuhbandner, Stefan Homburg, Harald Walach, Stefan Hockertz
17 Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?
Simon N. Wood
https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.02090
18 Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Thomas A. Mellan, Helen Coupland, Charles Whittaker, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Mélodie Monod, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Azra C. Ghani, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Neil M. Ferguson, Lucy C. Okell & Samir Bhatt
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7
19 Comment on Flaxman et al. (2020, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7): The 1illusory effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
Stefan Homburg1, Christof Kuhbandner
20 Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe: A quasi-experimental study
Paul R Hunter, Felipe J Colón-González, Julii Brainard, Steven Rushton
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v2
21 Trajectory of COVID-19 epidemic in Europe
Marco Colombo, Joseph Mellor, Helen M Colhoun, M Gabriela M Gomes, Paul M McKeigue
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1
22 Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions
Ken Rices, Ben Wynne, Victoria Martins, Graeme J Ackland
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588
23 Modeling social distancing strategies to prevent SARS-CoV2 spread in Israel- A Cost-effectiveness analysis
Amir Shlomai, Ari Leshno, View ORCID ProfileElla H. Sklan, View ORCID ProfileMoshe Leshno
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047860v3
24 Smart Thinking, Lockdown and COVID-19: Implications for Public Policy
Morris Altman
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3607803
25 SARS-CoV-2 waves in Europe: A 2-stratum SEIRS model solution
Levan Djaparidze, Federico Lois
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.09.20210146v2
26 Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19
Andrew Atkeson, Karen Kopecky & Tao Zha
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27719
27 Association between living with children and outcomes from COVID-19: an OpenSAFELY cohort study of 12 million adults in England
Harriet Forbes, Caroline E Morton, Seb Bacon, View ORCID ProfileHelen I McDonald, Caroline Minassian, Jeremy P Brown, View ORCID ProfileChristopher T Rentsch, View ORCID ProfileRohini Mathur, Anna Schultze, Nicholas J DeVito, View ORCID ProfileBrian MacKenna, William J Hulme, Richard Croker, Alex J Walker, Elizabeth J Williamson, Chris Bates, Amir Mehrkar, View ORCID ProfileHelen J Curtis, David Evans, Kevin Wing, Peter Inglesby, Henry Drysdale, Angel YS Wong, Jonathan Cockburn, Robert McManus, John Parry, Frank Hester, Sam Harper, Ian J Douglas, Liam Smeeth, Stephen JW Evans, Krishnan Bhaskaran, View ORCID ProfileRosalind M Eggo, View ORCID ProfileBen Goldacre, Laurie A Tomlinson
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.01.20222315v1
28 Exploring inter-country coronavirus mortality
Trevor Nell, Ian McGorian, Nick Hudson
https://pandata.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Exploring-inter-country-variation.pdf
29 Lockdowns and Closures vs COVID –19: COVID Wins
Surjit S Bhalla
http://ssbhalla.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Lockdowns-Closures-vs.-COVID19-Covid-Wins-Nov-4.pdf
30 Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response
John Gibson
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00779954.2020.1844786
31 Predicting the Trajectory of Any COVID19 Epidemic From the Best Straight Line
Michael Levitt, Andrea Scaiewicz, Francesco Zonta
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140814v2
32 Potential lessons from the Taiwan and New Zealand health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic
Dr Jennifer Summers, Dr Hao-Yuan Cheng, Professor Hsien-Ho Lin, Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Michael G Baker
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(20)30044-4/fulltext
33 Commentary on : Potential lessons from the Taiwan and New Zealand health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic
Amelia Janaskie
https://www.aier.org/article/the-mystery-of-taiwan/
34 Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19: A Tale of Three Models
Vincent Chin, John P.A. Ioannidis, Martin A. Tanner, Sally Cripps
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3
35 A First Literature Review: Lockdowns Only Had a Small Effect on COVID-19
Jonas Herby
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3764553
36 COVID-19 Lockdown Policies: An Interdisciplinary Review
Oliver Robinson
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3782395
37 The effect of interventions on COVID-19
Kristian Soltesz, Fredrik Gustafsson, Toomas Timpka, Joakim Jaldén, Carl Jidling, Albin Heimerson, Thomas B. Schön, Armin Spreco, Joakim Ekberg, Örjan Dahlström, Fredrik Bagge Carlson, Anna Jöud & Bo Bernhardsson
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-3025-y
38 Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policies during the COVID-19 pandemic
Christopher R. Berry, Anthony Fowler, Tamara Glazer, Samantha Handel-Meyer, and Alec MacMillen
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2019706118
39 Longitudinal variability in mortality predicts Covid-19 deaths
Jon O. Lundberg, Hugo Zeberg
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.25.20248853v1.full-text
40 Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policiesduring the COVID-19 pandemic
Christopher R. Berrya, Anthony Fowlera, Tamara Glazera, Samantha Handel-Meyera, and Alec MacMillen
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/15/e2019706118.full.pdf
41 SARS-CoV-2 elimination, not mitigation, creates best outcomes for health, the economy, and civil liberties
Miquel Oliu-Barton, *Bary S R Pradelski, Philippe Aghion, Patrick Artus, Ilona Kickbusch, Jeffrey V Lazarus, Devi Sridhar, Samantha Vanderslot
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00978-8/fulltext
42 THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND POLICY RESPONSES ON EXCESS MORTALITY
Virat Agrawal, Jonathan H. Cantor, Neeraj Sood, Christopher M. Whaley
43 Policy and Effectiveness of Covid-19 Response
Serge Dolgikh
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.27.21257908v1.full-text
44 Externality and COVID-19
Peter T. Leeson, Louis Rouanet
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/soej.12497#.YJF0yRvGTjQ.twitter
45 Imagination and remembrance: what role should historical epidemiology play in a world bewitched by mathematical modelling of COVID‑19 and other epidemics?
George S. Heriot · Euzebiusz Jamrozik
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s40656-021-00422-6.pdf
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