Mandatory Hotel Quarantine (MHQ) was introduced in Ireland on 26 March 2021 following the passage of the Health (Amendment) Act 2021.
While presented and justified as a “public health” measure necessary and essential to limit the spread of Covid, it is notable that none of the pandemic planning documents prepared before 2020 by international and national Public Health Agencies, including WHO, European CDC, US CDC, UK NHS and Ireland’s HSE recommended border closures or severe travel restrictions during a pandemic.
The European CDC, based on good quality Grade B evidence, i.e., “evidence based on well-designed epidemiologic studies, substantial observational studies or experimental studies with 5 to 50 subjects, or experimental studies with other limitations (not having influenza as an endpoint, for example). The code Bm indicates modelling work, with emphasis on studies that have good quality primary data available” concluded the effectiveness of border closures or severe travel restrictions would be “Minimal unless almost complete” (e.g. NZ) and that both direct and indirect costs would be “Massive”.
The same document, included Quarantine under the heading “Personal protective measures”. Its conclusion on Quarantine based on Grade C quality evidence, i.e. “evidence based on case reports, small poorly controlled observational studies, poorly substantiated larger studies, application of knowledge of mode of transmission, infectiousness period etc.” was that the effectiveness of Quarantine was unknown and that direct and indirect costs would be “Massive”.
The pre-2020 pandemic planning documents represented a Global, North American and European consensus of public health experts. These pandemic plans were abandoned in the face of the Covid pandemic, but there has not been any evidence put forward to show the plans were wrong and that the actual measures imposed have been superior in effectiveness or less costly.
Review of the pre-2020 pandemic planning documents gives rise to serious doubt, virtually a presumption, that MHQ would be not beneficial for its purported purpose. Nevertheless, the Government obviously received advice to the contrary, heeded that advice and legislated for and implemented MHQ.
Given the fact that MHQ imposes restrictions on individual liberties, it is in effect a form of imprisonment. It is a form of imprisonment without charge or trial, for which the imprisoned is required to pay, a double penalty in the absence of a crime. There is no dispute that in normal circumstances, this would be clearly and obviously a gross violation of constitutional and natural rights. The Government’s stated justification for this violation of rights is that it is necessary as a public health measure to control the spread of Covid, and that while undesirable it is necessary as an emergency measure and therefore constitutional as a temporary emergency measure. It is notable however, that none of the legislative Acts enabling emergency powers make any specific reference to the particular Articles of the Constitution that are considered to provide this capacity to the State.
Restrictions of individual rights in emergency are accepted by the public and courts if they are reasonable and proportionate, in other words, if and only if they deliver the desired benefit and their overall cost is not disproportionate to the benefit obtained.
So, the question is:
· Is MHQ effective for its purported purpose, and therefore however objectionable it may, is nevertheless reasonable and proportional and constitutionally tolerable as a temporary measure, or
· Is MHQ ineffective for its stated purpose, and therefore regardless of the intentions or desires of its proponents, is therefore by reason of ineffectiveness an unreasonable and disproportionate restriction of constitutional and natural rights, and therefore constitutionally intolerable?
The answer to this question is within the Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland - 14 Day reports issued daily by HSE/HPSC since 6 September 2021, with gaps during periods of peak Covid infections and following the HSE hack in May 2021.
These reports include a table with the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases by most likely transmission source within the prior 14 days. For example, this is the table in the report dated 21/07/2021:
In the period 07/072021 to 21/07/2021 there were 819 confirmed Covid cases most likely to have a travel related transmission source. This represents 6.6% of the 12,403 cases confirmed in the period.
These reports are only snapshots for the two weeks prior. To get the larger picture, it is necessary to collate the information from multiple reports. The following table and chart records the reported value each week since 6 September 2021, and the calculated percentage of total cases due to travel related sources in that period.
The reports 25 Oct to 06 Dec 2021, 10 Jan and 17 Jan 2021 during the peak of the infection waves did not include the transmission source table. The omission of reports in May 2021 is because the reports were not issued in the immediate aftermath of the HSE hack. Each report included a rolling 14-day total. Therefore, if reports two weeks apart are summed, the cumulative total can be calculated without overlap. The reports used to calculate the Pre- and With-MHQ totals are highlighted in light blue and light orange respectively.
In the seven months prior to imposition of MHQ, Sept-20 to March-21, only 0.8%, 1,081 of 133,155 confirmed cases were deemed to be travel related. Note that this total does not include the periods in which no report of travel related sources was made, the total for all periods is 249,305.
In the three and a half months since MHQ was imposed, i.e., half the prior period, almost twice as may travel related cases have been identified, 2,058 out of 45,874 total confirmed cases. Therefore, with MHQ, there have been twice as many travel related cases in half the period accounting for a five-and-a-half times HIGHER proportion of all cases.
By 24 June, 6,825 people had entered MHQ, of whom 274 (4.0%) had tested positive for Covid “while quarantining” as of 18 June. We are not told when in quarantine these positive tests occurred. The quarantine period is longer than the virus’ incubation period, therefore a positive test later in quarantine than the incubation period would more likely indicate a local transmission rather than an imported one.
To 20 June, there were 932 travel cases. The 274 MHQ positives were 29% of this total, but only 0.6% of all cases.
At least 71% of travel related cases are not affected by MHQ.
The %Travel Cases line in the chart clearly shows the rise in travel related cases has been unaffected at all by MHQ, apart from a brief blip immediately following its imposition.
As predicted by the international and national public health authorities in their pandemic planning documents, MHQ is ineffective, it has had no detectable beneficial effect on the number of travel related cases.
Given that it is demonstrably ineffective, as predicted by multiple pandemic planning documents, MHQ and its restrictions on liberty cannot be considered a reasonable and proportionate measure, it is therefore constitutionally intolerable and should be terminated immediately.
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