The following analysis is mostly based on the NYT Twitter report of the Kramatorsk missile attack.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1512510637322162186
The Twitter Report includes this marked up photo:
The close-up photos potentially could have been taken anywhere. However, the third photo includes a background which can be checked. Google Street Map does not include Kramatorsk.
However, Google Maps does include imagery of locations in the vicinity of Kramatorsk Railway Station, including this one: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.7259266,37.5426494,3a,75y,241.25h,88.93t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNPpY5wnlb4Q2E3ZQdNdRB7OiFCWT78OlEZhlWB!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNPpY5wnlb4Q2E3ZQdNdRB7OiFCWT78OlEZhlWB%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya23.801271-ro-0-fo100!7i8704!8i4352
This is an extract from the above Google Image:
If we compare this image with the background of the image including the aft end of the missile, we see the building is the same, same colour, identical balconies, identical parapet, etc. In addition, the arrangement of the poles in the vicinity of the missile aft end is identical, the two black and white striped poles, the black pole is identically located adjacent to the fore black and white striped pole, and in the near background there is another that appears to be comprised of at least three poles. The location of the missile aft end is therefore confirmed approximately 70 meters from the entrance to Kramatorsk Railway Station.
The configuration of the fins on the missile section confirm its identification as a Tochka-U.
I have taken the information in the NYT photo and used it to estimate to nominal impact point of the missile, and estimate its direction of flight before impact. Note, the Tochka-U missile does not actually impact the ground, it releases submunitions in the air, each of which explode before impact with the ground. The nominal impact point therefore represents the approximate position at which the missile released the sub-munitions.
The location of the "missile fragment" as it is described by NYT is marked by the red and yellow arrow. This fragment is actually the aft section of the missile containing the rocket motor and fuel tank which separates from the warhead before impact. Since it does not have an aerodynamically shaped front it has the flight characteristics of a brick, and consequently falls short of the missile warheads impact point.
The locations marked by six-pointed red and yellow stars are the locations at which the NYT reports bodies and burning cars. The yellow circle is defined by the three red and yellow stars. Junior secondary/high school maths, three points define a circle.
The four-pointed star in the centre is the nominal impact point of the missile. The missile fragment location and the nominal impact point gives us two points with which we can define to reasonable accuracy the course of the missile. Junior secondary/high school maths, two points define a straight line.
Working back from the nominal missile impact through the aft section impact and extrapolating backwards, we can identify the direction of flight of the missile. There are some small inaccuracies in the estimation of the impact point and the precise location of the missile fragment. These are not large, but they do mean we cannot precisely confirm the missiles course to within plus or minus a few degrees. Therefore, a white triangle is used to show the approximate direction the missile must have come from.
The missile came from a west-south-westerly direction.
Next is a Google map of the area WSW of Kramatorsk to a distance of over 120 km. The launch location of the Tochka-U missile must have been within or very close to the area outlined by the white triangle. All of this area is under the control of Ukrainian forces, therefore any weapon launched from this area must have been launched by Ukrainian forces.
This is of course, an amateur analysis. But given the data available, no other conclusion is possible.
At any given moment, NATO has radar and other electronic reconnaissance aircraft monitoring everything that happens in Ukraine. These aircraft include E-3A Sentry AWACS, RC-135W Electronic surveillance and RQ-48 Global Hawks.
NATO has all the electronic records to confirm beyond reasonable doubt the source of the missile that struck Kramatorsk.
If NATO has records to confirm the missile was launched by Russia, they should release them immediately.
If NATO records show the missile was launched by Ukraine, they must also be released immediately, otherwise conscious complicity in false accusations of a massacre is to be an accessory to the massacre.
Update:
Several links to images of the missile's serial number have been posted a Moon of Alabama
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/more-evidence-that-ukraine-fired-the-missile-which-killed-dozens-in-kramatorsk.html#more
Here are the links:
https://t.me/rustroyka1945/746
https://ibb.co/DDqtqmv
https://ibb.co/sschzrM
The serial number of the missile is: ш91579
It shouldn't be difficult to confirm who it belonged to.
