Sunday, 10 April 2022

Analysis of Direction of Flight of Missile at Kramatorsk

The following analysis is mostly based on the NYT Twitter report of the Kramatorsk missile attack. 

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1512510637322162186 

The Twitter Report includes this marked up photo:

In addition, there have been photos published which purport to show the missile fragment, as it is described by NYT.

The close-up photos potentially could have been taken anywhere. However, the third photo includes a background which can be checked. Google Street Map does not include Kramatorsk. 

 However, Google Maps does include imagery of locations in the vicinity of Kramatorsk Railway Station, including this one: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.7259266,37.5426494,3a,75y,241.25h,88.93t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNPpY5wnlb4Q2E3ZQdNdRB7OiFCWT78OlEZhlWB!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNPpY5wnlb4Q2E3ZQdNdRB7OiFCWT78OlEZhlWB%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya23.801271-ro-0-fo100!7i8704!8i4352 

This is an extract from the above Google Image:

If we compare this image with the background of the image including the aft end of the missile, we see the building is the same, same colour, identical balconies, identical parapet, etc. In addition, the arrangement of the poles in the vicinity of the missile aft end is identical, the two black and white striped poles, the black pole is identically located adjacent to the fore black and white striped pole, and in the near background there is another that appears to be comprised of at least three poles. The location of the missile aft end is therefore confirmed approximately 70 meters from the entrance to Kramatorsk Railway Station. 

The configuration of the fins on the missile section confirm its identification as a Tochka-U. 

I have taken the information in the NYT photo and used it to estimate to nominal impact point of the missile, and estimate its direction of flight before impact. Note, the Tochka-U missile does not actually impact the ground, it releases submunitions in the air, each of which explode before impact with the ground. The nominal impact point therefore represents the approximate position at which the missile released the sub-munitions.

The location of the "missile fragment" as it is described by NYT is marked by the red and yellow arrow. This fragment is actually the aft section of the missile containing the rocket motor and fuel tank which separates from the warhead before impact. Since it does not have an aerodynamically shaped front it has the flight characteristics of a brick, and consequently falls short of the missile warheads impact point. 

 The locations marked by six-pointed red and yellow stars are the locations at which the NYT reports bodies and burning cars. The yellow circle is defined by the three red and yellow stars. Junior secondary/high school maths, three points define a circle. 

The four-pointed star in the centre is the nominal impact point of the missile. The missile fragment location and the nominal impact point gives us two points with which we can define to reasonable accuracy the course of the missile. Junior secondary/high school maths, two points define a straight line. 

Working back from the nominal missile impact through the aft section impact and extrapolating backwards, we can identify the direction of flight of the missile. There are some small inaccuracies in the estimation of the impact point and the precise location of the missile fragment. These are not large, but they do mean we cannot precisely confirm the missiles course to within plus or minus a few degrees. Therefore, a white triangle is used to show the approximate direction the missile must have come from. 

The missile came from a west-south-westerly direction. 

Next is a Google map of the area WSW of Kramatorsk to a distance of over 120 km. The launch location of the Tochka-U missile must have been within or very close to the area outlined by the white triangle. All of this area is under the control of Ukrainian forces, therefore any weapon launched from this area must have been launched by Ukrainian forces.

This is of course, an amateur analysis. But given the data available, no other conclusion is possible. 

At any given moment, NATO has radar and other electronic reconnaissance aircraft monitoring everything that happens in Ukraine. These aircraft include E-3A Sentry AWACS, RC-135W Electronic surveillance and RQ-48 Global Hawks. 

NATO has all the electronic records to confirm beyond reasonable doubt the source of the missile that struck Kramatorsk. 

If NATO has records to confirm the missile was launched by Russia, they should release them immediately. 

If NATO records show the missile was launched by Ukraine, they must also be released immediately, otherwise conscious complicity in false accusations of a massacre is to be an accessory to the massacre.

 

Update:

Several links to images of the missile's serial number have been posted a Moon of Alabama

 https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/more-evidence-that-ukraine-fired-the-missile-which-killed-dozens-in-kramatorsk.html#more


Here are the links:

https://t.me/rustroyka1945/746

https://ibb.co/DDqtqmv

https://ibb.co/sschzrM

The serial number of the missile is:  ш91579

It shouldn't be difficult to confirm who it belonged to.

Sunday, 20 February 2022

A New Flag for Canada under Trudeau's Emergency Regime

Now that Trudeau has assumed total power, it is only appropriate that Canada should have a new flag to reflect its new reality. Here is my proposal for the Trudeau Regime Flag:

Tuesday, 11 January 2022

Irish Times censor strikes again!

 The following comment was deactivated by the Irish Times today for "violating community standards"! 

 

 It seems unlikely (but possible?) they are objecting to my reporting HSE data that contradicts the hysterical  scapegoating if the unvaxxed.

here is the link to the Vaccination Status Report:

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/vaccinationstatusreports/

More likely, it is my closing remark though I am mystifyed how it could be considered to violate the so-called community standards.

Here they are, compare my remark to them and judge for yourself:

The Community Standards are:

"The following activities are not acceptable.

* Personal abuse of our authors, of commenters, members or of any other individuals.

* Posts which contain incitement to hatred of groups or individuals, or foul or profane language.

* Posts which promote or provide instructional information about illegal activities, promote physical harm or injury against any group or individual, or promote any act of cruelty to animals.

* Contributions which may put The Irish Times in legal jeopardy, because they are unlawful, harmful, threatening, abusive, harassing, tortious, defamatory, vulgar, obscene, libellous, invasive of another's privacy, hateful, or racially, ethnically or otherwise objectionable

* Comments which are not relevant to the topic in question

* Posts which appear to be promoting commercial products or acting in a spam-like fashion.

* Posts whose purpose is to promote propaganda or external links, rather than adding to the particular discussion taking place on irishtimes.com.

* Posts which create a false identity for the purpose of misleading others.

* Posts which "stalk" another."

Tuesday, 10 August 2021

Idealist vs. Realist Views of Science

 

The naive idealist, or a bluffer, says:

Science follows the truth.

 

The practical realist knows:

Science follows the money.

No research grants, no money, no science.

Wrong results in science papers, no more research grants, no more money.

No money, no science.

Money first, then science.

Science follows the money.

Money doesn’t care about truth.

Money cares about power.

Money enables power.

Power cares about money

Power does not care about truth.

Power will do what money says.

Science cares about power.

Science cares about money.

Truth has no money.

Truth has no power.

Science will do what money and power says.

Analysis of Direction of Flight of Missile at Kramatorsk

The following analysis is mostly based on the NYT Twitter report of the Kramatorsk missile attack.  https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/15125...